How to Bet Big on the U.S. Presidential Election, Using Augur

Co-written with GC Just-launched Augur v2 is at the bleeding edge of betting and prediction markets. It is a user-owned platform with no betting limits and self-custody of funds. Today, we’ll place a bet on the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. The market currently gives Trump 43% odds of winning...

How Augur v2 Can Succeed
Big Challenges and Big Opportunities

If Augur v1 was like trying to stream HD videos in 1995, Augur v2 is something like trying to build Uber in 1999. The infrastructure and building blocks (0x, Uniswap, DAI) are a bit further along, but it’s an even more ambitious undertaking and still…early. That said, it may...

The Risk of Illiquid Clone Markets on Augur v2

Imagine a version of Coinbase that had twenty separate markets for Bitcoin, each one with its own order book. Suppose the default display did not sort these markets by liquidity. As a result, capital would fragment among the markets, new users would not reliably see the most liquid one,...

The 5 Things That Make a Prediction Market Decentralized

I think there are five main vectors to look at when considering how decentralized a prediction market platform is. By decentralization here, I mean resistance to central control or censorship. Market CreationCan anyone create markets, can only one privileged party do so, or somewhere in between, like a DAO...

DeFi Synthetics on Augur

Augur lets anyone, anywhere create new financial instruments that have never existed – with a few clicks. One can create synthetics that track anything from Apple stock to the price of Ether. Under the hood, these are scalar markets. Such markets resolve along a scale rather than paying out...

Augur: A New Financial Primitive

Shares in Augur markets represent exposure to or insurance against any future state of reality. They are a new financial primitive. These shares are transferrable, borderless, programmable, and uncensorable. Anyone, anywhere, at anytime can buy, sell, exchange, or even gift these shares to anyone else. Just as lending, exchange,...

The Potential of Pandemic Prediction Markets

Coronavirus is lucky that it struck humanity before the rise of open prediction markets. If you’re a virus and you want to spread, one of your biggest assets is not being taken seriously, fast enough. Decentralized prediction markets will soon make this harder by helping surface, signal, and hedge...

How Augur v2 Tackles 3 Critical Trading Risks

Trading on Augur carries three risks, right now. Risks, here, meaning cases in which you could be right but still lose money. For example, if I buy YES shares in the Giants winning a football game, and they win, it’s possible I could still come out at a loss....

The Game of Augur
How Incentives Fuel an Open Prediction Market

Show me the incentive, and I will show you the outcome. -Charlie Munger Augur is a game in which traders, market creators and other players seek to maximize their self interest while creating something of value for the whole. In the game of Augur, there is no referee standing...

Augur’s Flippening
Why Everything May Be About to Change…

Imagine a social network that: 1) none of your friends are on 2) where you have to pay a dollar each time you post a status update or add a friend 3) you can only pay this fee using an obscure, volatile currency that most people have never even...