Category: Augur

The Three Powers of Augur

Augur has three powers: it can help us predict the future, prepare for the future, and persuade the future. Predict The first thing that comes to mind when most people think of Augur is forecasting future events. By efficiently absorbing both public and private knowledge via financial incentives and...

What to Build on Augur in 2020?

Today, I’ll share some ideas for tools, apps, and types of markets to build on Augur in 2020. The 2020 election cycle could be for Augur what the World’s Fair of 1893 was for electricity: the first major demo of the new technology’s potential and a peek into the...

What One High-Stakes Trader Can Teach Us About Augur

About 100 hours before the U.S. midterms election in November, an anonymous Augur trader spun up a throwaway Reddit account to comment on how he was almost single-handedly responsible (at the time) for the trading volume in the midterms market. He had bet around half a million dollars worth...

Prediction > Punditry Via Augur & Putting My Money Where My Mouth Is

tldr: Punditry and public predictions tend to be unaccountable, unfalsifiable, unequivocal, and unrevisable. Augur makes it possible to make better predictions and to create media claims backed by these predictions. I demo this by placing an Augur trade to back a public prediction. Lately, I’ve been thinking about how...

19 Augur Predictions for 2019

Augur has now been live for over half a year. I think 2019 will be a year of progress as well as productive growing pains for the young peer-to-peer prediction platform. Since it’s always fun to try to predict the unpredictable, here are a few thoughts on what the...

Augur’s Antifragility: A Few Thoughts

On the night of the midterms, as America sat glued to CNN and Fox news, some of us instead tuned into Augur to get a pulse on the election. That night, the peer-to-peer prediction platform hit a new milestone: its first-ever market with over one million dollars at stake...

Cool Things Built on Augur: A 5 Minute Guide

Augur has been out in the wild for less than 100 days, but talented devs around the world have already started building cool things on top of it. This is a dual testament to the potential of Augur and Ethereum. For Augur, like any DApps built on Ethereum, all...

How to Spot Winning Arbitrage Trades on Augur

Today, I’ll build on some thoughts I recently wrote about prediction arbitrage. In prediction arb, you take both sides of a trade i.e., bet on opposite outcomes, in separate prediction markets. By taking advantage of pricing gaps between the markets, you can get a nominally guaranteed profit. In the...

Prediction Arbitrage

Opportunities Between Augur & Other Markets As Augur and other prediction markets take off, we may see some big arbitrage opportunities. What is Arbitrage? Arbitrage is when you buy or sell a financial asset like a stock or cryptocurrency on multiple exchanges at the same time in order to capture...

Opportunity On Augur
7 Examples Of Market Inefficiency

Someday, Augur may be the world’s largest, most efficient market, but that day is a long ways off. We’re still in the crack-of-dawn early days and it’s the Wild West. There’s a great deal of inefficiency, meaning a great deal of opportunity for the resourceful trader. Today, I’ll look...