PredictIt vs. Augur
Which Prediction Market Should I Use?

PredictIt is a political prediction market platform, while Augur is a decentralized alternative built on Ethereum.

I’ve used PredictIt since 2016 and Augur since the first day it launched in July, 2018. Augur recently released its much-awaited v2, which delivers an improved trading experience.

Today, I’ll break down the pros and cons of Augur vs. PredictIt from a user perspective. While I think that open platforms like Augur are the future of prediction markets, the tech is still early and comes with tradeoffs.

So the goal here is to help you determine whether Augur or PredictIt makes the most sense for you, based on your unique circumstances and preferences. I’ll compare each platform across a range of metrics.

Let’s jump in!

Limits

Traders on PredictIt can wager up to 850 dollars on any given market outcome. Augur has no limits. You can trade however much you want on any given outcome, provided a willing counterparty. 

Winner: Augur 

Ease of use

PredictIt is easier to use, hands down. Doubly true if you’re new to crypto. It’s a traditional web app with a simple UI.

Augur requires cryptocurrency to use and has a more complex interface. It’s still doable if you’re new to crypto, but it’s a steeper learning curve.

Winner: PredictIt

Fees

Settlement fees are dramatically lower on Augur, averaging around 1% vs. PredictIt’s 10%. PredictIt also charges 5% withdrawal fees while Augur charges zero, since you never deposit or withdraw funds. 

*BUT*

Augur runs on Ethereum, which means crazy transaction fees these days . These fees fluctuate based on how many people are using Ethereum at any time. So on Augur you’re looking at anywhere from around twenty to hundreds of dollars in tx fees per trade these days. On the UI, you can see the estimated tx fees before placing a trade.

Keep in mind that these fees are flat relative to how much you’re trading (unless you’re filling more orders), so if you’re making a large enough trade, you’ll get lower proportional fees on Augur.

Winner: tossup — Augur for large-stakes traders, PredictIt for casual traders 

Market Selection

PredictIt only has markets on political outcomes. Augur has markets on anything, and if you can’t find what you’re looking for, you can create your own market with a few clicks.

That said, market creation is costly and complex at this point in time, and as of this writing, PredictIt still has more markets.

Winner: tossup  —more diverse outcomes on Augur and possible to create new markets but higher number of markets on PredictIt

Social

PredictIt has a vibrant social community, with Disqus comments for each market. Augur’s native UI does not have market-level comments. It does have a Discord server, though market-related discussion is limited.

Winner: PredictIt

Access

PredictIt is only for users in the U.S., while you can access Augur anywhere in the world. 

Winner: Augur

Settlement Speed

PredictIt markets typically settle as soon as an outcome is known. Augurmarkets in v2 will probably take a few days on average, and that’s on top of thetime cushion that market creators add to minimize Invalid risk. 

In the long run, this may be a moot point, as users will be able to get instant settlement on Augur for lower fees than on PredictIt, but that is not the case today. 

Winner: PredictIt

Custody/Trust

PredictIt custodies user’s funds, while on Augur, all funds are handled by ownerless, open-source smart contracts. You never deposit any funds into a central operator. 

Winner: Augur

Conclusion 

If you’re a casual user who wants to trade small amounts or prefers a simple interface with a social experience, PredictIt is your best bet…for now. 

If you want to trade larger amounts, like playing with cutting-edge tech, or want to trade on outcomes outside of politics, then Augur is your best option.

Feel free to check out this quick tutorial on how to place your first trade on Augur, featuring the 2020 U.S. presidential election market. 

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