Tag: Blockchain

The Potential of Pandemic Prediction Markets

Coronavirus is lucky that it struck humanity before the rise of open prediction markets. If you’re a virus and you want to spread, one of your biggest assets is not being taken seriously, fast enough. Decentralized prediction markets will soon make this harder by helping surface, signal, and hedge...

How Augur v2 Tackles 3 Critical Trading Risks

Trading on Augur carries three risks, right now. Risks, here, meaning cases in which you could be right but still lose money. For example, if I buy YES shares in the Giants winning a football game, and they win, it’s possible I could still come out at a loss....

The Game of Augur
How Incentives Fuel an Open Prediction Market

Show me the incentive, and I will show you the outcome. -Charlie Munger Augur is a game in which traders, market creators and other players seek to maximize their self interest while creating something of value for the whole. In the game of Augur, there is no referee standing...

How to Keep up to Speed on Augur
A Quick Guide to the Best Resources

We’re starting to see more content, media and social activity in Augurland, so I wanted to share a list of the best sources to keep a pulse on what’s happening in the space. How many of these you follow will depend on whether you’re a casual spectator, a serious...

How Prediction Markets Work
A Simple Thought Experiment

To get a feel for how prediction markets work, let’s build one…from scratch. We’ll mentally construct a prediction market from the ground up with a simple thought experiment. Let’s say our goal is to make the best prediction possible on some future event. It could be a political election,...

Radically Open Markets

Just as anyone, anywhere, anytime can create a Wikipedia page on anything, anyone, anywhere, anytime can create an Augur market on anything — any verifiable outcome in the universe. And just as anyone can contribute to a Wikipedia page, anyone can contribute to an Augur market by pricing in their unique...

The Three Powers of Augur

Augur has three powers: it can help us predict the future, prepare for the future, and persuade the future. Predict The first thing that comes to mind when most people think of Augur is forecasting future events. By efficiently absorbing both public and private knowledge via financial incentives and...

What to Build on Augur in 2020?

Today, I’ll share some ideas for tools, apps, and types of markets to build on Augur in 2020. The 2020 election cycle could be for Augur what the World’s Fair of 1893 was for electricity: the first major demo of the new technology’s potential and a peek into the...

What One High-Stakes Trader Can Teach Us About Augur

About 100 hours before the U.S. midterms election in November, an anonymous Augur trader spun up a throwaway Reddit account to comment on how he was almost single-handedly responsible (at the time) for the trading volume in the midterms market. He had bet around half a million dollars worth...

Prediction > Punditry Via Augur & Putting My Money Where My Mouth Is

tldr: Punditry and public predictions tend to be unaccountable, unfalsifiable, unequivocal, and unrevisable. Augur makes it possible to make better predictions and to create media claims backed by these predictions. I demo this by placing an Augur trade to back a public prediction. Lately, I’ve been thinking about how...