Tag: Prediction Markets

The 5 Things That Make a Prediction Market Decentralized

I think there are five main vectors to look at when considering how decentralized a prediction market platform is. By decentralization here, I mean resistance to central control or censorship. Market CreationCan anyone create markets, can only one privileged party do so, or somewhere in between, like a DAO...

DeFi Synthetics on Augur

Augur lets anyone, anywhere create new financial instruments that have never existed – with a few clicks. One can create synthetics that track anything from Apple stock to the price of Ether. Under the hood, these are scalar markets. Such markets resolve along a scale rather than paying out...

Augur: A New Financial Primitive

Shares in Augur markets represent exposure to or insurance against any future state of reality. They are a new financial primitive. These shares are transferrable, borderless, programmable, and uncensorable. Anyone, anywhere, at anytime can buy, sell, exchange, or even gift these shares to anyone else. Just as lending, exchange,...

The Potential of Pandemic Prediction Markets

Coronavirus is lucky that it struck humanity before the rise of open prediction markets. If you’re a virus and you want to spread, one of your biggest assets is not being taken seriously, fast enough. Decentralized prediction markets will soon make this harder by helping surface, signal, and hedge...

The Game of Augur
How Incentives Fuel an Open Prediction Market

Show me the incentive, and I will show you the outcome. -Charlie Munger Augur is a game in which traders, market creators and other players seek to maximize their self interest while creating something of value for the whole. In the game of Augur, there is no referee standing...

Augur’s Flippening
Why Everything May Be About to Change…

Imagine a social network that: 1) none of your friends are on 2) where you have to pay a dollar each time you post a status update or add a friend 3) you can only pay this fee using an obscure, volatile currency that most people have never even...

20 Augur Predictions for 2020

2020 has the potential to be a breakthrough year for Augur and open prediction markets. Augur is well-poised to be one of DeFi’s headline success stories this year and one of the first DApps to bring non-crypto-natives to Ethereum. It’s still early days, and there will be growing pains,...

How to Keep up to Speed on Augur
A Quick Guide to the Best Resources

We’re starting to see more content, media and social activity in Augurland, so I wanted to share a list of the best sources to keep a pulse on what’s happening in the space. How many of these you follow will depend on whether you’re a casual spectator, a serious...

How Prediction Markets Work
A Simple Thought Experiment

To get a feel for how prediction markets work, let’s build one…from scratch. We’ll mentally construct a prediction market from the ground up with a simple thought experiment. Let’s say our goal is to make the best prediction possible on some future event. It could be a political election,...