Tag: Trading

Augur: A New Financial Primitive

Shares in Augur markets represent exposure to or insurance against any future state of reality. They are a new financial primitive. These shares are transferrable, borderless, programmable, and uncensorable. Anyone, anywhere, at anytime can buy, sell, exchange, or even gift these shares to anyone else. Just as lending, exchange,...

20 Augur Predictions for 2020

2020 has the potential to be a breakthrough year for Augur and open prediction markets. Augur is well-poised to be one of DeFi’s headline success stories this year and one of the first DApps to bring non-crypto-natives to Ethereum. It’s still early days, and there will be growing pains,...

How Prediction Markets Work
A Simple Thought Experiment

To get a feel for how prediction markets work, let’s build one…from scratch. We’ll mentally construct a prediction market from the ground up with a simple thought experiment. Let’s say our goal is to make the best prediction possible on some future event. It could be a political election,...

Meet Poyo: An Interview with Augur’s Most Controversial Cat

Poyo has been called a troll, scammer, scheming mastermind and incompetent fool. There’s probably some truth to all of these labels for the controversial Augur trader and self-christened “sof’ cat of predictions.” I first stumbled across Poyo in 2016 when I sighted a whiskered avatar in the comment section...

How to Create Liquid Augur Markets

I recently created what is now the most popular market on Veil, by trading volume: “Will U.S. Presidential Candidate Pete Buttigieg Have One Million or More Twitter Followers on May 1, 2019?” This got me thinking about how to create liquid markets on Augur. A prediction market can concern...

19 Augur Predictions for 2019

Augur has now been live for over half a year. I think 2019 will be a year of progress as well as productive growing pains for the young peer-to-peer prediction platform. Since it’s always fun to try to predict the unpredictable, here are a few thoughts on what the...

How to Spot Winning Arbitrage Trades on Augur

Today, I’ll build on some thoughts I recently wrote about prediction arbitrage. In prediction arb, you take both sides of a trade i.e., bet on opposite outcomes, in separate prediction markets. By taking advantage of pricing gaps between the markets, you can get a nominally guaranteed profit. In the...

Prediction Arbitrage

Opportunities Between Augur & Other Markets As Augur and other prediction markets take off, we may see some big arbitrage opportunities. What is Arbitrage? Arbitrage is when you buy or sell a financial asset like a stock or cryptocurrency on multiple exchanges at the same time in order to capture...

Opportunity On Augur
7 Examples Of Market Inefficiency

Someday, Augur may be the world’s largest, most efficient market, but that day is a long ways off. We’re still in the crack-of-dawn early days and it’s the Wild West. There’s a great deal of inefficiency, meaning a great deal of opportunity for the resourceful trader. Today, I’ll look...

Getting An Edge On Augur
A Few Thoughts On Beating Prediction Markets

Wanted to share some early, developing thoughts on how to play Augur’s prediction markets. To get some context, if you haven’t yet, check out my recent post The Radical Potential Of Augur. Augur launched just last week and you can download it here and connect on Reddit or Discord...